Takeaways | Experts Discuss the Future of Southern Yemen Under Saudi Oversight

Event Recap

The Washington Center for Yemeni Studies held an expanded webinar discussion examining the trajectories of southern Yemen amid the transfer of political and military decision-making to Riyadh, at a pivotal stage of the Yemeni war and the reshaping of power balances in the south. The discussion took place against the backdrop of declining roles for local and regional actors and a growing direct Saudi presence in managing the political and security files.

Decision-making shifts to Riyadh

In the opening of the session, held on Tuesday, moderator Fatima Abo Alasrar said the discussion comes at a “genuine transitional moment,” noting that recent weeks have witnessed “fundamental changes” in the southern landscape. These included the sidelining of the Southern Transitional Council’s leadership and Saudi Arabia’s assumption of direct management of the file through a Supreme Military Committee that restructured armed formations and moved the center of decision-making “decisively” to Riyadh.

Abu Al-Asrar explained that the internationally recognized Yemeni government still exists formally, but that “effective decision-making authority is now being managed from Saudi Arabia.” She also noted that Deputy Foreign Minister Mustafa Noman apologized for not participating due to rapidly unfolding political developments and expectations of a new government formation.

The American and UN approach

Dr. April Longley Alley presented an assessment of the U.S. and UN perspectives, stressing that “Yemen is not a priority in Washington,” and had not been so even during the Trump administration, with the exception of a limited military intervention last year that ended in a “bilateral truce” with the Houthis.

She explained that current U.S. policy rests on two main objectives: “maintaining de-escalation in the Red Sea,” and exerting pressure on the Houthis through sanctions as part of the broader strategy toward Iran. She pointed to the absence of effective U.S. diplomatic leadership, noting the lack of a special envoy or active mediation to coordinate allies’ positions.

Local and Hadrami perspectives

Dr. Saadaldeen Talib offered a local perspective rooted in Hadramout, criticizing what he described as a “narrow international outlook” that treats Yemen solely as a “source of threat to the world,” while overlooking Yemenis’ suffering and their right to build a just and stable state.

He characterized the Southern Transitional Council’s moves as an attempt to impose a “totalitarian and authoritarian rule” from a specific area in the south, arguing that its attempt to expand into Hadramout “rang alarm bells” for Saudi Arabia as a direct threat to its national security.

Talib noted that the STC’s refusal to retreat led to a “military and leadership collapse,” prompting direct Saudi intervention and the opening of a new dialogue track. He stressed that Hadramout, Al-Mahra, and Shabwa “do not accept militia rule,” whether in the form of the STC or the Houthis.

He emphasized that the solution lies in “rebuilding the state on fair, decentralized foundations,” possibly within a federal framework, rejecting the handover of the state to armed groups with “medieval mentalities,” and prioritizing justice and accountability.

Economic and service-related crisis

In his intervention, Ambassador Marwan Ali Noman focused on the economic dimension, arguing that service-related challenges constitute a real test for any new political arrangements.

He explained that the government faces a severe crisis in paying salaries and relies almost entirely on Saudi support, calling for a regular mechanism, particularly for diplomats. He also pointed out that the electricity sector suffers from “chronic corruption and mismanagement,” highlighting the importance of the $500 million Saudi grant in covering the fuel gap.

Noman stressed the need to unify revenues, halt illegal levies, and resume flights to Socotra to stimulate tourism, in addition to presenting a transparent general budget for 2026, given the absence of regular budgets since 2015.

In the medium term, he underscored the priority of combating corruption and reforming the Central Bank to protect the currency. He argued that sustainable solutions require strategic investments and judicial reform to restore confidence among investors who left due to “hostile policies” in Aden.

On the oil file, he explained that the halt in exports since Houthi attacks in October 2022 has left the government with difficult options, including rehabilitating ports, reaching a revenue-sharing agreement mediated by Saudi Arabia, or moving toward a comprehensive peace settlement.

Conclusion of the discussion

In closing, participants agreed that the gap between international priorities and Yemenis’ aspirations remains wide, and that the international community’s focus on maritime security does not address the root causes of the crisis.

Dr. Saadaldeen Talib stressed that “talking about fixing electricity without reforming the system of governance and combating corruption is futile,” calling for “halting the hemorrhage of conflict over power and wealth” as an entry point to any genuine recovery.

The session concluded that the future of southern Yemen will remain contingent on the existence of a genuine political will that moves beyond conflict management toward rebuilding the state and its institutions, amid a turbulent regional and international environment that offers no easy solutions but imposes decisive stakes on local and regional actors.

Speakers