US Policy Under a Trump Administration: Yemen, the Gulf, and the Axis of Resistance
Wednesday December 4, 2024
Speakers
Mohammed A. Salih: Non-resident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Adam T Clements: Former Diplomat & Pentagon Official
Mustafa Naji Aljabzi: Doctoral Candidate & Former Diplomat
Moderated by:
Fatima Abo Alasar: Senior Policy Analyst, WCYS, Moderator
Event Recap
The panelists explored the implications of the incoming Trump administration on Yemen, the axis of resistance, and the broader Middle East, with a focus on the ongoing conflict in Yemen, Iran-Israel tensions, and Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council and the Gulf allies’ strategies in countering the Houthi Threat. The Discussion also addressed the need for sustainable solutions in Yemen, the potential for a regional security framework, and the importance of aligning US strategies with the capabilities of regional allies.
The panelists analyzed the anticipated policies of the incoming Trump administration and noted potential shifts in pressure against Iran and its proxies, particularly the Houthis. The panelists underscored that Iran and its Axis are currently in a weaker position than they were in the past due to the military campaign launched by the U.S. & Israel and the recent advances of the anti-Assad opposition in Syria. However, they noted that domestic appeal for the Houthis has increased as a result of the international intervention, which complicates the internal dynamic in the country. Salih highlighted tensions between interventionist and isolationist tendencies in the administration and suggested a possible maximum pressure campaign on Iran. He also pointed to concerns within Iran over renewed sanctions and domestic unrest.
Clements stressed the need for the U.S. to define its priorities in Yemen, balancing military and economic efforts with diplomatic strategies. He emphasized the importance of precise military interventions and fostering engagement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Panelists noted that the US airstrikes and resource allocation must avoid exacerbating humanitarian challenges while supporting Yemeni citizens effectively. Clements also suggested continued U.S. cooperation with Gulf allies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to bolster Yemen’s internationally recognized government. He proposed r small-scale security collaborations and strategic naval resources allocation to counter smuggling networks. The panel also discussed the Houthi utilization of the conflict in Gaza to justify their attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the potential consequences of a ceasefire in Gaza. Abo Alasrar observed that while a ceasefire in Gaza might diminish the Houthis’ justification for their aggression in the Red Sea, it could inadvertently redirect their focus inward, intensifying their push toward Bab al-Mandab. She emphasized that such developments pose serious risks to Yemen’s stability and the long-term security of this vital strategic corridor.
Aljabzi examined the complexities of the Yemeni conflict and the potential redesignation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by the incoming Trump administration. He argued that sanctions alone would not shift power dynamics and urged the US to empower Yemen’s government and include local actors in peace-building initiatives. The discussion also emphasized concerns about the humanitarian impact of aggressive policies. Aljabzi also noted that Yemeni people are under worse humanitarian conditions during the current truce, as the past few years saw a decline in humanitarian assistance as well as an increase in Houthis’ belligerence. Abo Alasrar observed that the Houthis have escalated their campaign of arrests against humanitarian workers and Yemeni educators while also detaining U.N. staff, a strategy that has fostered a climate of hostility toward humanitarian aid and sharply curtailed relief efforts in areas under their control. The panelists turned their attention to strategies for countering Iran’s influence in Yemen. Salih underscored the importance of applying sustained pressure on Tehran’s proxy network, while Aljabzi emphasized the Houthis’ deep dependency on Iranian support as a critical vulnerability.
Aljabzi and Clements underscored the importance of uniting counter-Houthi forces while maintaining accountability. Alasrar raised concerns about evolving Iran-Russia dynamics and their implications for Yemen. Clements suggested that the US could use diplomacy with regional states to engage with Russia and prevent them from playing a spoiler role in the Middle East.
The potential for a regional security framework to stabilize the Middle East was discussed, particularly in Yemen and the Gulf States. Salih suggested that declining Iranian influence could enable restructuring regional security alignments with US and allied interests. Alasrar noted that there are currently no security guarantees for the Gulf or Yemen and that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is vulnerable to Houthis’ attacks and Iranian influence, which is leading it to consider a more diplomatic outlook on the conflict that has often been seen as appeasement to the Houthis. She also added that there is a general perception that the prolonged conflict in Yemen has led to a weakened regional standing for Saudi Arabia and significant humanitarian and economic costs for Yemen & the broader region.
The panelists discussed the balance between peace-building and limited interventions. Aljabzi expressed uncertainty about the Trump administration’s strategies but highlighted the need for comprehensive peace processes. Clements advocated for humanitarian considerations and recalibrated resource use, while Salih proposed integrating state and non-state actors into a reimagined regional security framework. Panelists agreed on the importance of strengthening regional alliances, addressing Yemen’s humanitarian crisis, and redefining US engagement in the Middle East. They emphasized that a balanced approach would be critical to advance US interests while fostering stability in Yemen and the broader region.
