Thursday, March 27, 2025
Speakers:
Samuel Ramani – Associate Fellow · Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
Asher Orkaby – Research Associate and Instructor · Harvard University
Sadeq Al-Wesabi – Senior Fellow · WCYS
Moderated by:
Fatima Abo Alasrar – Senior Policy Analyst · WCYS
Event Recap:
On March 27, 2025, the Washington Center for Yemeni Studies (WCYS) hosted a panel discussion on the anniversary of the 10th Year of Saudi intervention in Yemen entitled “Yemen’s War at Ten: From Saudi to U.S. Intervention,” convening analysts who specialize in Yemen and the region. The discussion covered the rationale of the Saudi intervention, its evolution, Iran and Russia’s role in Yemen, the FTO designation, and the renewed U.S. airstrikes in Yemen. Below are the key takeaways from the discussion:
The Evolution of the Houthi Movement and Regional Implications
Panelists discussed the origins of the Houthi movement, their overall goals, and their objectives in both Yemen and the region. Asher Orkaby emphasized how the group has effectively monopolized power by exploiting regional instability, while Sadeq Al-Wesabi underlined the theological underpinnings of their ideology, rooted in claims of divine legitimacy and bolstered by strategic alignment with Iran. Samuel Ramani added that the Houthis’ ideological evolution, particularly their embrace of transnational narratives and symbolism, has helped solidify their identity as part of a broader regional resistance axis. All three panelists cautioned that the Houthis’ ambitions have expanded far beyond Yemen’s borders. Fatima Abo Alasrar stressed the expansionist nature of the Houthis’ and their ties to Iran that have been historically overlooked in the conflict.
Russia and Iran: Strategic Enablers of Houthi Expansion
Fatima Abo Alasrar noted that Houthis’ alliance with Russia has grown due to their ultity for Russia in its war in Ukraine, although Russia did not appreciate their brutal takeover and objected to their killing of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Samuel Ramani provided an in-depth analysis of the Houthis’ growing alignment with Moscow, noting a marked evolution in Russia’s posture from initial skepticism to tacit partnership. As U.S.-Russia relations deteriorated post-2014, Ramani explained how Russia began engaging the Houthis diplomatically while shielding Iran from scrutiny over arms transfers. While Russia stops short of open military support, its intelligence sharing and selective protection of Houthi shipping activities in the Red Sea highlight the movement’s value as a geopolitical asset. Ramani argued that the Houthis have increasingly become a node in a broader anti-Western alliance that includes Iran, Hezbollah, and, to some extent, Russia. He also noted that this alliance has allowed the Houthis to gain strategic cover and leverage in global forums, particularly as international actors weigh the implications of deeper involvement in Yemen.
The Limits of Military Containment and the Question of Legitimacy
Some panelists pointed to the fact that U.S. military strikes, while tactically effective in disrupting missile and drone operations, are unlikely to produce a durable solution unless paired with a broader strategy that would remove their monopoly of power and violence in Yemen. Fatima Abo Alasrar pointed to the fact that Washington’s indecision and lack of urgency that was avaialble for everyone to observe in theleaked Signal chat exposed strategic drift in policymaking circles. Panelists highlighted the risk of once again empowering the Houthis through international ceasefires and deconfliction mechanisms that often pause offensives at the very moment when the group is vulnerable, citing the Stockholm agreement as an example of these issues. Orkaby cautioned that the conflict has repeatedly been extended by poorly timed diplomatic interventions that unintentionally legitimize the Houthis’ rule. Ramani added that without addressing the group’s regional enablers and information networks, airstrikes alone may fail to curb their strategic momentum or weaken their internal hold.
Failed Interventions and the Crisis of Governance
Reflecting on a decade of war, panelists noted that both Saudi and Emirati interventions initially promised swift victory and were effective in Yemen’s South, but ultimately fell short from acehieving their stated objectives in both restoring Yemen’s government to power and securing the Saudi-border from the Iran-backed Houthis Al-Wesabi pointed out how widespread public support for the Saudi-led coalition in 2015 has eroded due to lack of tangible progress and the perception that foreign powers are pursuing their own interests. Meanwhile, the internationally recognized Yemeni government remains fragmented and largely disconnected from the population. Orkaby and Al-Wesabi both stressed the urgency of restoring local governance structures with legitimate ties to communities rather than relying on exiled leadership based in Riyadh. Orkaby also warned that persistent reliance on flawed humanitarian models has enabled the Houthis to extract economic and political benefit from aid delivery, arguing that diversion of food assistance and control of logistics have become part of the group’s power structure.
Media Narratives and Misinformation
Al-Wesabi criticized international media and certain policy circles for misrepresenting the Houthis as freedom fighters or a marginalized minority while ignoring their systemic violations from arbitrary killings and abductions, including child recruitment, home demolitions, and widespread human rights abuses they conduct on civilians. He noted that such narratives have served as effective propaganda tools for Houthi recruitment and legitimacy, even as the group targets civilians and represses dissent. Al-Wesabi warned that the international media’s failure to reflect on-the-ground realities has prolonged the war and disempowered civil society.
Key Takeaways:
- The Houthi Movement Has Evolved into a Regional Threat
Once rooted in local grievances, the Houthis now operate as a regional actor aligned with Iran and tacitly supported by Russia. Their ambitions extend beyond Yemen’s borders, posing long-term risks to regional stability. - Military Strikes Alone Are Insufficient
U.S. and allied airstrikes can disrupt immediate threats, but absent a coordinated political strategy with Yemen’s government or actors on the ground, they risk reinforcing the Houthis’ narrative and failing to weaken their internal grip on power. - International Legitimacy Has Empowered the Houthis
Previous ceasefires and UN-brokered agreements, including the 2018 Stockholm Agreement, inadvertently solidified Houthi control and undermined alternative political actors on the ground. - Governance Must Be Locally Rooted
Panelists underscored the need for a political vision that reflects Yemen’s complex social fabric. Local actors, rather than exiled elites, must take the lead in rebuilding post-Houthi governance structures. - Correcting Misinformation is Critical to International Policy
Misleading media portrayals have shielded the Houthis from scrutiny and muted calls for accountability. A recalibration of Western narratives is essential to ensure that international policy is grounded in the lived realities of Yemenis.
Recommendations for Action:
- For the U.S. and Allied Governments: Align military containment with political strategy. Avoid legitimizing the Houthis through rushed diplomacy. Increase pressure on their regional backers, including Iran and Russia.
- For the UN and International Organizations: Rethink humanitarian aid delivery to prevent resource diversion. Avoid granting political leverage to the Houthis through unbalanced negotiation frameworks.
- For Yemeni Political Actors: Prioritize unity among anti-Houthi factions. Invest in building legitimate governance institutions to fill the vacuum after a potential Houthi retreat.
- For Civil Society and Local Leaders: Amplify grassroots resistance, document abuses, and prepare for transitional governance rooted in justice, inclusivity, and regional autonomy.
Conclusion:
As the war enters its second decade, the urgency of a coordinated, Yemeni-led solution has never been greater. The current moment—marked by U.S. airstrikes, regional recalibrations, and growing discontent within Yemen—presents a critical inflection point. The international community must move beyond reactionary responses to Houthi provocations. The panel left no doubt: without strategic clarity, empowered local actors, and the political will to dismantle both external and internal enablers, the cycle of conflict will persist. Yet the window for change remains open if the right lessons are finally acted upon.
